https://macronotebook.com/ A daily read on economics, equities and geopolitics. en-gb Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:33:00 GMT https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-crowding-out-foreign-buyers-now-prefer-us-corporate-bonds-to-treasuries/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-crowding-out-foreign-buyers-now-prefer-us-corporate-bonds-to-treasuries/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:33:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskRatesThe 10-year Treasury yield is 5.19%, up 44bp since August. In the year to July, private foreign investors bought $392.3bn of US corporate bonds and $263.4bn of Treasuries. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/chip-stocks-lose-116-in-six-days-and-sp-500-profit-growth-leans-on-them/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/chip-stocks-lose-116-in-six-days-and-sp-500-profit-growth-leans-on-them/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:32:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesThe Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.3% on Wednesday after a hot inflation report. Chipmakers are expected to provide much of the S&P 500's third-quarter profit growth. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/starlink-limits-and-missing-warnings-the-us-squeezes-kyiv-to-stop-and-settle/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/starlink-limits-and-missing-warnings-the-us-squeezes-kyiv-to-stop-and-settle/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:31:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsSpaceX capped Ukraine's military Starlink and two missile warnings never came, as 600,000 lost power. Zelensky says he feels betrayed. Kyiv's allies fear the aim is a forced deal. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-skills-now-set-pay-on-wall-street-a-quarter-of-finance-firms-tie-bonuses-to-them/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-skills-now-set-pay-on-wall-street-a-quarter-of-finance-firms-tie-bonuses-to-them/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 23:30:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesA quarter of US finance HR staff say their firms tie raises, promotions and bonuses to AI proficiency. PwC puts the pay premium for AI skills at 62%, up from 57% a year earlier. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/cpi-today-what-a-hot-in-line-or-soft-report-means-for-fed-rate-odds/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/cpi-today-what-a-hot-in-line-or-soft-report-means-for-fed-rate-odds/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 08:20:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskRatesUS CPI for September is out today. Here is what a hot, in-line or soft report would mean for the odds of a Fed rate rise in October or December, and for yields. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/flight-to-quality-investors-are-buying-microsoft-not-mcdonalds/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/flight-to-quality-investors-are-buying-microsoft-not-mcdonalds/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 07:03:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesIn the flight to quality, quality stocks beat momentum by the widest margin since 2023. The money went into tech: McDonald's and Home Depot are down this year. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/asml-results-record-117bn-sales-and-more-demand-than-it-can-supply-in-2027-and-2028/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/asml-results-record-117bn-sales-and-more-demand-than-it-can-supply-in-2027-and-2028/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 07:00:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesASML's third-quarter results beat its own forecast and it raised its 2026 outlook again. Chipmakers now want more machines than it can build in 2027 and 2028. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/bank-of-america-fine-12bn-for-failing-to-report-5bn-of-suspicious-payments/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/bank-of-america-fine-12bn-for-failing-to-report-5bn-of-suspicious-payments/Wed, 14 Oct 2026 06:58:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCreditThe Bank of America fine is the third-largest in Treasury history. The bank admits it relied on police and other banks to spot money laundering for it. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nvidia-is-too-big-to-fail/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nvidia-is-too-big-to-fail/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:18:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesNvidia guarantees $108.5bn of data-centre leases, $105bn of them for OpenAI, and holds $51.2bn of private stakes. Its filings show why it is too big to fail. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/imf-world-economic-outlook-growth-slows-to-31-as-inflation-rises-to-47/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/imf-world-economic-outlook-growth-slows-to-31-as-inflation-rises-to-47/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:16:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskPolicyThe IMF's October World Economic Outlook sees global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. AI investment offsets the energy shock, but inflation is rising. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/eu-china-hybrid-deal-imports-capped-at-350000-a-year-less-than-half-this-years/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/eu-china-hybrid-deal-imports-capped-at-350000-a-year-less-than-half-this-years/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:15:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsChina will hold hybrid car exports to the EU to 350,000 a year from December, against about 800,000 this year. The EU's deficit with China was €372bn in 2025. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/diesel-prices-the-iea-wants-faster-stock-releases-as-the-russian-deal-falls-short/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/diesel-prices-the-iea-wants-faster-stock-releases-as-the-russian-deal-falls-short/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:13:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCommoditiesUS diesel costs $6.20 a gallon, 67% more than a year ago. The IEA wants stocks released faster, and experts say Trump's Russian deal will barely move prices. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/meta-muse-wonder-reaches-the-ai-frontier-but-anthropic-still-leads/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/meta-muse-wonder-reaches-the-ai-frontier-but-anthropic-still-leads/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:11:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesMeta's Muse Wonder Full scores 56 on an independent index, behind Claude Opus 5.5 at 58 and ahead of OpenAI's best at 53. More labs at the top test safety rules. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/energy-ceasefire-the-us-threatens-ukraines-weapons-supply-over-refinery-strikes/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/energy-ceasefire-the-us-threatens-ukraines-weapons-supply-over-refinery-strikes/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:09:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsTrump declared an energy ceasefire as US officials threatened to cut Ukraine's arms and intelligence unless it stops striking Russian refineries, the FT says. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nvidia-and-reflection-ai-talks-to-buy-the-open-model-start-up-it-already-backs/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nvidia-and-reflection-ai-talks-to-buy-the-open-model-start-up-it-already-backs/Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:05:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesNvidia is in talks to buy Reflection AI or invest more in it, having already put in $800m. It is the chipmaker's latest bet on open AI models made in America. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/uk-budget-2026-the-ifs-says-healey-faces-a-35bn-choice-of-tax-rises-or-cuts/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/uk-budget-2026-the-ifs-says-healey-faces-a-35bn-choice-of-tax-rises-or-cuts/Mon, 12 Oct 2026 06:31:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskPolicyBefore the UK Budget 2026, the IFS says inflation will squeeze public services. Avoiding cuts and funding defence could need £35bn of tax rises or benefit cuts. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/russian-diesel-the-us-lifts-sanctions-but-the-first-cargo-covers-14-hours-of-use/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/russian-diesel-the-us-lifts-sanctions-but-the-first-cargo-covers-14-hours-of-use/Mon, 12 Oct 2026 06:28:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsThe US Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until April 2027 after a Trump-Putin call. The first 300,000 tonnes equal about 14 hours of US diesel use. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/rupee-near-record-low-the-rbi-curbs-hedging-and-sells-dollars-to-oil-firms/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/rupee-near-record-low-the-rbi-curbs-hedging-and-sells-dollars-to-oil-firms/Mon, 12 Oct 2026 06:27:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCurrenciesThe rupee is near a record low. The RBI cut the hedging limit from $100m to $5m, added a 20% reserve on dollar hedges and will sell dollars to oil firms. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/openai-revenue-is-50bn-not-68bn-and-ai-stocks-paid-for-the-gap/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/openai-revenue-is-50bn-not-68bn-and-ai-stocks-paid-for-the-gap/Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:40:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesOpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was about $50bn at the end of September, well short of the $68bn widely reported. CoreWeave fell nearly 8% and Oracle almost 6%. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/data-centre-building-is-up-73-in-a-year-the-rest-of-us-construction-is-shrinking/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/data-centre-building-is-up-73-in-a-year-the-rest-of-us-construction-is-shrinking/Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:30:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCreditSpending on US data centre construction reached an $85.0bn annual rate in August. Private building outside data centres fell 5.3%, and AI deals made up more than half of net bond supply. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/revolut-picks-new-york-for-its-listing-because-that-is-where-the-buyers-are/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/revolut-picks-new-york-for-its-listing-because-that-is-where-the-buyers-are/Sun, 11 Oct 2026 00:20:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesRevolut's chief executive says the digital bank is targeting a primary US listing, citing the depth of American markets. The US holds 43.7% of the world's stock market value. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/oil-prices-rose-4-after-trump-ruled-out-an-iran-strike-before-the-midterms/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/oil-prices-rose-4-after-trump-ruled-out-an-iran-strike-before-the-midterms/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:55:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCommoditiesBrent closed up 4% at $104.28 after Trump pledged no attack on Iran before 3 November. As long as oil is above $70, we read such pledges as talk. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/jobless-claims-four-weeks-under-200000-a-run-last-seen-in-1969/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/jobless-claims-four-weeks-under-200000-a-run-last-seen-in-1969/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:50:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskRatesWeekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, the fourth week in a row under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969. American employers are not firing, but they are not hiring much either. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/wto-trade-forecast-ai-is-holding-up-world-trade-and-that-is-the-risk/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/wto-trade-forecast-ai-is-holding-up-world-trade-and-that-is-the-risk/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:45:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsThe WTO doubled its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9%, and AI goods drove almost half the growth. The productivity gains are hard to see. The borrowing is not. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nord-stream-us-and-russian-officials-discussed-an-american-investor/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/nord-stream-us-and-russian-officials-discussed-an-american-investor/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:40:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskGeopoliticsJared Kushner and Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev talked about a US stake in the idle Nord Stream pipelines, Reuters reported. Germany says it does not want them back. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-shopping-agents-are-making-big-tech-the-gatekeepers-of-commerce-ing-says/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/ai-shopping-agents-are-making-big-tech-the-gatekeepers-of-commerce-ing-says/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:35:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesAI agents that shop for us will make the biggest platforms stronger, ING says. Amazon has blocked Meta's Muse agent, Shopify has let it in, and Amazon's ad business shows why. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/starlink-india-musk-blames-oligarchs-and-new-delhi-calls-it-baseless/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/starlink-india-musk-blames-oligarchs-and-new-delhi-calls-it-baseless/Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:30:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesMusk asked if Mukesh Ambani is ‘the real boss of India’ as Starlink waits to launch there. Jio and Airtel hold 77% of India's mobile users. The government denies any bias. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/mortgage-rates-hit-740-the-highest-since-2023/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/mortgage-rates-hit-740-the-highest-since-2023/Thu, 08 Oct 2026 23:24:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskRatesMortgage rates rose for a seventh week: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, as Treasury yields climbed. Here is what it costs. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/american-express-money-laundering-fine-350m-and-no-asset-cap/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/american-express-money-laundering-fine-350m-and-no-asset-cap/Thu, 08 Oct 2026 23:18:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskCreditThe American Express money laundering fine is $350m: regulators found its bank missed about $13bn of suspect activity over a decade, from 2014 to 2025. https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/pepsico-earnings-profit-forecast-cut-as-north-america-stalls/https://macronotebook.com/2026/10/pepsico-earnings-profit-forecast-cut-as-north-america-stalls/Thu, 08 Oct 2026 23:17:00 GMTThe Notebook DeskEquitiesPepsiCo earnings: third-quarter revenue rose 5.6%, but PepsiCo cut its 2026 profit forecast as sales in North America stalled and input costs kept rising.