RatesMarket noteFriday 9 October 2026, 00:50
Jobless claims: four weeks under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969
Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, the fourth week in a row under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969. American employers are not firing, but they are not hiring much either.
By The Notebook Desk
Weekly jobless claims in the United States have now stayed below 200,000 for four weeks in a row. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week to 3 October, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The four-week average, which smooths out the weekly noise, fell by 2,500 to 198,000.
The last time claims stayed under 200,000 for four straight weeks was in the late summer of 1969, according to the department’s seasonally adjusted series, which starts in 1967. The four-week average is the lowest since the week to 1 October 2022, when the job market was at its hottest after the pandemic.
Jobless claims are lower than they look
The comparison with 1969 understates how few people are being laid off. The American labour force has more than doubled since then, from about 80m. Measured against the labour force of 170.3m in September, claims now run at about 1.16 a week for every 1,000 people in work or looking for it. That is the lowest since the series began, by our calculation, below the 2022 low of 1.20 and well below 2.23 in 1969.
The turn has been quick. The four-week average peaked at 242,250 in June 2025. A year ago, in the week to 4 October 2025, initial claims were 233,000 on the current seasonal adjustment.
Low firing, slow hiring
Claims measure only one side of the job market: the firing side. The other side looks much weaker. American employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, as we reported on 2 October, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The government’s survey of job openings tells the same story from both ends. The layoffs rate was 1.0% of employment in August, close to its record low of 0.9% in 2021, in data that go back to 2000. The hires rate was 3.3%. Apart from April 2020, the first month of the pandemic, it never fell that low between 2014 and 2023.
So employers are holding on to the staff they have, but they are adding few new people. For workers with a job, that means security. For people without one, it means a longer search. Continuing claims, the number of people still drawing benefits, were 1.716m in the week to 26 September, up 17,000 on the week. That is lower than a year earlier, when they were above 1.9m, but well above the 1.39m of early October 2022, the last time new claims were this low.
What claims miss
Claims do not catch every job loss. Some workers get severance pay first, some do not qualify for benefits, and some never apply. But in each recent downturn, including after the financial crisis and in the pandemic, claims rose quickly as layoffs spread. There is no sign of that now.
Other data agree. Employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, 20% fewer than a year earlier and the lowest September total since 2022, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. Cuts for the first nine months were 573,195, down 39% from 2025. Leaving out government, where last year’s federal cuts swelled the total, they were down 15%. Technology led the cuts this year, and artificial intelligence was the most cited reason, behind about 21% of them.
The firm also found little sign of the usual seasonal hiring before the holidays. “Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now,” said Andy Challenger of the firm.
What to watch next
The next weekly claims figures come out on Thursday, 15 October. A steady rise in the four-week average would be the first sign that firing is picking up.
For the Federal Reserve, low layoffs remove one reason to hold back. Most officials expected another rate rise by the end of the year, the minutes of their September meeting showed. The next decision is due on 28 October.
Disclosure
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.