Weekly jobless claims in the United States have now stayed below 200,000 for four weeks in a row. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week to 3 October, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The four-week average, which smooths out the weekly noise, fell by 2,500 to 198,000.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, the fourth week in a row under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969. American employers are not firing, but they are not hiring much either.
Mortgage rates rose for a seventh week: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, as Treasury yields climbed. Here is what it costs.
UK mortgage rates are at three-year highs: the average five-year fix is 6.00% and sub-5% fixed deals have almost gone, as gilt yields and BoE rate bets climb.
A chart pairing 1987 with 2026 says rising yields end in a crash. Since 1962 the 10-year has jumped 100bp by October in nine years, and only 1987 crashed. The real risk is real yields.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp in the week, to its highest Friday close since 2002, even as weak jobs data cut the odds of a Fed rise. Real yields did it.
Hiring fell short of forecasts and the two months before were revised down by 60,000. Futures now give a Fed increase on 28 October about a one-in-five chance. Two-year yields fell 7bp.
Core PCE prices rose 0.2% in August, less than forecast, and revisions lowered the path. Futures now give an October increase about a 35% chance, down from 71% on Monday.