Oil prices rose on Thursday even after President Donald Trump promised not to attack Iran before the midterm elections. "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said the two countries were having "productive discussions".
Brent closed up 4% at $104.28 after Trump pledged no attack on Iran before 3 November. As long as oil is above $70, we read such pledges as talk.
Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, the fourth week in a row under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969. American employers are not firing, but they are not hiring much either.
Mortgage rates rose for a seventh week: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, as Treasury yields climbed. Here is what it costs.
The American Express money laundering fine is $350m: regulators found its bank missed about $13bn of suspect activity over a decade, from 2014 to 2025.
The ECB minutes for September show every member backed the rise to 2.50% and saw inflation risks to the upside, but they chose to promise nothing for October.
The Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate rise by the end of 2026. Since then, inflation and hiring came in softer, but long yields kept rising.
Paramount closed its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover and is now Skydance. It paid about $78bn in cash, funded by $47bn of equity and $41.4bn of secured bonds.
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% and moved to calibrated tightening, its first rise since February 2023, as it sees inflation near 6% this winter.
Heating oil prices will average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34%, the EIA says. Oil-heated homes face a 21% higher bill; gas and propane users pay less.
Why is the euro falling? French bond yields jumped, Spain called a snap election, and the euro hit $1.1204, its lowest since May 2025. The figures behind it.
UK mortgage rates are at three-year highs: the average five-year fix is 6.00% and sub-5% fixed deals have almost gone, as gilt yields and BoE rate bets climb.
A chart pairing 1987 with 2026 says rising yields end in a crash. Since 1962 the 10-year has jumped 100bp by October in nine years, and only 1987 crashed. The real risk is real yields.
Most economists expect Wednesday's RBI policy decision to lift the repo rate to 5.50%. Inflation hit 4.82% in August, and the RBI sees it peaking near 6%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp in the week, to its highest Friday close since 2002, even as weak jobs data cut the odds of a Fed rise. Real yields did it.
G7 leaders agreed to release 100m barrels of oil and diesel over four months. About 75m was still owed from March. Then Trump ruled out a diesel export ban.
Seven OPEC+ countries held their combined November target at 31m barrels a day. OPEC's own data show its members pumped 28% less in the spring than in 2025.
Chinese refiners have halted exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel to rebuild stocks at home. Europe is discussing a 50m-barrel diesel release. Diesel already sells for about $90 a barrel more than crude.
Energy prices were 18.8% higher than a year ago in September, and inflation reached its highest since 2023. Core inflation rose only to 2.5%, and markets see little chance of an ECB rise this month.
Hiring fell short of forecasts and the two months before were revised down by 60,000. Futures now give a Fed increase on 28 October about a one-in-five chance. Two-year yields fell 7bp.
Core PCE prices rose 0.2% in August, less than forecast, and revisions lowered the path. Futures now give an October increase about a 35% chance, down from 71% on Monday.
Kpler put Middle East crude exports at 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the most since February. Brent fell 2.6% on the news, yet it stays far above its pre-war level.
Diesel’s premium over crude reached a monthly record in September. BloombergNEF expects Africa and Asia to account for 95% of new refining capacity to 2030, led by Nigeria’s Dangote.