In plain sight

One chart and a few sentences on a fact that is easy to miss.

The columns of the New York Stock Exchange on Broad Street, seen from below — Photo: Billie Grace Ward, CC0. Pixels by The Macro Notebook.

Equities05 Oct, 21:50 · 4 min read

October has ended six of 13 bear markets. This year the bear hides inside a record

October is known for its crashes, but its record is better at endings. Of the 13 bear markets in the S&P 500 since 1946, falls of 20% or more, six ended in October, according to tables kept by Yardeni Research. No other month has more than two. The last one ended on 12 October 2022.

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September 2026

Wed 3000:40Commodities
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Diesel’s premium over crude reached a monthly record in September. BloombergNEF expects Africa and Asia to account for 95% of new refining capacity to 2030, led by Nigeria’s Dangote.
In plain sightThe Notebook Desk4 min
Tue 2909:35Commodities
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In plain sightThe Notebook Desk3 min
Tue 2909:00Rates
The bond sell-off is about real yields, not inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 54bp in a month. The market price of inflation moved 1bp.
In plain sightThe Notebook Desk3 min