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8 Oct

Geopolitics

Trade, sanctions, conflict and the prices they move, and the Western Balkans and Greece. 11 items since launch, newest first.

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Geopolitics
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Market note
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3 min

WTO trade forecast: AI is holding up world trade, and that is the risk

The World Trade Organization has doubled its forecast for trade in goods this year, and artificial intelligence is the reason. Merchandise trade volume will grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from 1.9% in its March forecast, the WTO said on Thursday. Goods that go into AI, such as chips and servers, made up 47% of the growth in world goods trade in the first half of the year. Trade in them rose by 67%.

The WTO doubled its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9%, and AI goods drove almost half the growth. The productivity gains are hard to see. The borrowing is not.

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October 2026

  1. Geopolitics
    Nord Stream: US and Russian officials discussed an American investor

    Jared Kushner and Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev talked about a US stake in the idle Nord Stream pipelines, Reuters reported. Germany says it does not want them back.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  2. Geopolitics
    Tariffs and inflation: goods prices would have fallen without them

    Tariffs and inflation: NY Fed economists find tariffs added 2.9 points to US goods inflation at the peak. Without them, goods prices would have fallen slightly.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  3. Geopolitics
    US trade deficit widens to $105.6bn, the largest since March 2025

    The US trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August, the widest since March 2025, as imports of crude oil, gold and chips rose much faster than exports.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
  4. Geopolitics
    Brazil election results: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula into a run-off

    Official Brazil election results give Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Neither passed 50%, so they meet in a run-off on 25 October.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
  5. Geopolitics
    Super Intelligence Force: who leads Trump's new AI body

    The Super Intelligence Force puts Trump's spy chief, the FTC chairman and two others in charge of coordinating AI policy. It follows an industry accord.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  6. Geopolitics
    US AI labs are making the case against cheap Chinese models

    OpenAI accused Moonshot of copying its models, and Anthropic warned that a free Chinese model can build working exploits. Both say they oppose a ban. Their rivals sell for far less.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min

September 2026

  1. Balkans
    Vučić gave up Serbia’s presidency, not his power

    He resigned to lead his party’s list in the election on 25 October. If it wins, he runs Serbia from the prime minister’s office. The size of the result matters as much as the winner.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  2. Geopolitics
    Burnham put rejoining the EU on the table. Voters back it, but Reform leads the polls

    The prime minister says Britain “could go all the way” back into the EU. Polls this year put support for membership at 60%. Reform UK, the party of Brexit, is level with Labour.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
  3. Geopolitics
    Europe criticised Trump on migration. Now it is looking to Rwanda too

    Five EU countries want to start sending rejected asylum seekers to countries outside the bloc next year, with Rwanda first. Rwanda also takes US deportees. Asylum claims are already down by a third.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
  4. Geopolitics
    Oil rose again after Iran’s Hormuz offer was turned down

    Brent futures rose more than 3% on 28 September, to about $107, after the US president rejected a proposal to reopen the strait within a week.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min

All Geopolitics items in the archive