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WTO trade forecast: AI is holding up world trade, and that is the risk
The World Trade Organization has doubled its forecast for trade in goods this year, and artificial intelligence is the reason. Merchandise trade volume will grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from 1.9% in its March forecast, the WTO said on Thursday. Goods that go into AI, such as chips and servers, made up 47% of the growth in world goods trade in the first half of the year. Trade in them rose by 67%.
The WTO doubled its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9%, and AI goods drove almost half the growth. The productivity gains are hard to see. The borrowing is not.
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