CommoditiesMarket noteSunday 4 October 2026, 14:56
OPEC+ keeps November oil output targets steady, but the war still sets supply
Seven OPEC+ countries held their combined November target at 31m barrels a day. OPEC's own data show its members pumped 28% less in the spring than in 2025.
By The Notebook Desk
OPEC+ kept its November oil output targets steady on Sunday. Seven of its members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, agreed to hold their “required production” for November at the September level, OPEC said. The seven targets add up to about 31m barrels a day. It is the second month in a row without an increase, and the group meets again on 1 November.
The decision matters less than it did a year ago. The targets assume that members can pump and ship what they are allowed to. Since the war on Iran began on 28 February, much of the Gulf’s oil has not reached the market, and most members now pump below their targets, The National reported. OPEC’s own estimates show that its members produced 19.99m barrels a day of crude in the second quarter, against 27.60m on average in 2025. That is a fall of 7.6m barrels a day, or 28%.
What OPEC+ decided for November
The seven are the members that made extra voluntary cuts in 2023. Through the spring and summer they added barrels back month by month. The last step, 188,000 barrels a day, took effect in September, OPEC said in August. That completed the return of 1.65m barrels a day of cuts made in 2023, according to The National. A further 2m barrels a day of group-wide cuts, agreed in 2022, stay in place until the end of the year.
In September the seven held October’s targets at the September level. On Sunday they did the same for November. Saudi Arabia has by far the largest target, followed by Russia.
Why the quota is not the limit
OPEC+’s monitoring committee met on the same day. Its statement noted “the overall conformity” of members with their targets in July and August. When output is far below the quotas, conformity is easy.
The committee spent more words on the real constraint. It stressed “the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes”, and it warned that damaged energy facilities are costly to repair and take a long time to return to full capacity. A higher target does not help a producer that cannot load its tankers.
Gulf exports have been recovering, as we reported on 30 September, as Saudi Arabia sends more crude by pipeline to its Red Sea coast. But the gap left by the spring is large. OPEC’s own balance shows supply falling 5.6m barrels a day short of demand in the second quarter, a gap that stocks had to fill. That was even with world demand 1.6m barrels a day lower than a year earlier, by OPEC’s estimate.
That is the background to the other supply news of the weekend. G7 leaders agreed on Friday to release 100m barrels of oil and diesel from emergency stocks over four months, as we reported today. Emergency stocks, not quotas, are filling the gap that the Gulf left.
What it means for prices
Brent crude settled at $102.25 a barrel on Friday, 6 cents lower on the day, and US crude at $91.11, Reuters reported. Both were set before the OPEC+ decision, so Monday’s open is the first test. A pause in targets changes little in a market where the binding limit is shipping, not quotas.
What to watch
- 1 November: the seven countries’ next monthly meeting, and their targets for December.
- 29 November: the next meeting of the monitoring committee.
- OPEC’s October oil market report: its first estimates of what members pumped in September.
- The Strait of Hormuz: any deal on shipping would matter more for supply than any target.
Disclosure
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.