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The Macro Notebook
A daily read on economics, equities and geopolitics.
8 Oct

Economics ›

Commodities

Oil, gas, metals and food, and what their prices say about the economy. 8 items since launch, newest first.

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3 min

Oil prices rose 4% after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the midterms

Oil prices rose on Thursday even after President Donald Trump promised not to attack Iran before the midterm elections. "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He said the two countries were having "productive discussions".

Brent closed up 4% at $104.28 after Trump pledged no attack on Iran before 3 November. As long as oil is above $70, we read such pledges as talk.

By The Notebook Desk

Continue reading the story

October 2026

  1. Heating oil prices are up 34%, and oil-heated homes face 21% higher bills

    Heating oil prices will average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34%, the EIA says. Oil-heated homes face a 21% higher bill; gas and propane users pay less.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  2. G7 oil stock release puts diesel first, but much of it was promised in March

    G7 leaders agreed to release 100m barrels of oil and diesel over four months. About 75m was still owed from March. Then Trump ruled out a diesel export ban.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  3. OPEC+ keeps November oil output targets steady, but the war still sets supply

    Seven OPEC+ countries held their combined November target at 31m barrels a day. OPEC's own data show its members pumped 28% less in the spring than in 2025.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
  4. China has stopped selling fuel abroad for October, as Europe weighs a diesel release

    Chinese refiners have halted exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel to rebuild stocks at home. Europe is discussing a 50m-barrel diesel release. Diesel already sells for about $90 a barrel more than crude.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min

September 2026

  1. Gulf crude exports are near 80% of pre-war levels, but oil is still priced for war

    Kpler put Middle East crude exports at 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the most since February. Brent fell 2.6% on the news, yet it stays far above its pre-war level.

    Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
  2. What the Gulf cannot sell, refiners in Africa and Asia now make

    Diesel’s premium over crude reached a monthly record in September. BloombergNEF expects Africa and Asia to account for 95% of new refining capacity to 2030, led by Nigeria’s Dangote.

    In plain sightThe Notebook Desk4 min
  3. Spot Brent rose 48% in three weeks, and it was not the year’s high

    Physical crude went from $88 to $131 a barrel between 25 August and 15 September.

    In plain sightThe Notebook Desk3 min

All Commodities items in the archive

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