ASML results: record €11.7bn sales, and more demand than it can supply in 2027 and 2028

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines used to print the most advanced chips, reported record third-quarter results on Wednesday and said its customers now want more machines than it can build. Net sales were €11.7bn in the three months to 27 September, towards the top of its own forecast of €11.0bn to €12.0bn, and net income was €5.0bn, ASML’s results show. The gross margin was 57.5%, above its forecast of 55% to 57%.

“We now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” Christophe Fouquet, the chief executive, said. Some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030.

ASML results against a year ago

A year earlier ASML’s third-quarter sales were €7.5bn and its net income €2.1bn, its 2025 results show. Sales are up 55% and profit has more than doubled, by our calculation. Earnings per share were €12.95, against €5.49. ASML sold 113 new lithography systems in the quarter, against 86 in the second quarter and 66 a year ago. In the first nine months of 2026 it sold 266 new systems and earned €10.6bn, by our calculation from its quarterly results.

Its service business grew too. Installed Base Management sales, which ASML earns from servicing and upgrading machines already in chip plants, were €3.3bn, above its forecast. Customers are paying to get more wafers out of the machines they already own while they wait for new ones.

ASML quarterly net sales, €bn. Source: ASML quarterly results, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026. Q4 2026 is the midpoint of ASML's forecast of €14.2bn to €15.2bn.

Q3 2025	7.5
Q4 2025	9.7
Q1 2026	8.8
Q2 2026	9.3
Q3 2026	11.7
Q4 2026 (forecast)	14.7 (midpoint)

Source: ASML quarterly results, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026. Q4 2026 is the midpoint of ASML's forecast of €14.2bn to €15.2bn.The Macro Notebook

A forecast raised three times

ASML expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2bn to €15.2bn, with a gross margin of about 57%. For the full year it now expects €44bn to €45bn. In April it forecast €36bn to €40bn, its first-quarter results show, and in July €43bn to €45bn, its second-quarter results show. The top of the range is now €5bn higher than it was six months ago.

The reason is AI. Customers keep raising their short- and medium-term forecasts for equipment, “driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments”, Fouquet said. The spending plans of the chipmakers, and of the cloud companies that buy their AI chips, end up in ASML’s order book.

Can ASML build enough machines?

Not as things stand. In July ASML said it planned to raise its capacity for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion machines by 30% in 2027, and was looking at a further 30% in 2028. It now says that will not be enough, and it is looking for ways to add more for 2028. Meanwhile it is selling upgrades that let customers squeeze more wafers out of existing machines.

A shortage of machines has two sides for investors. It protects ASML’s prices and margins, and it gives it unusually long sight of its sales. But it also caps how fast the chip industry can add capacity, whatever the AI companies are willing to spend.

Cash for shareholders

ASML bought back about €4.1bn of its own shares in the quarter, under its programme for 2026 to 2028, and will pay an interim dividend of €1.88 a share on 4 November. It ended September with €12.7bn of cash and short-term investments, up from €7.6bn at the end of June.

What to watch

The fourth-quarter forecast implies a record: at its midpoint, €14.7bn, about 26% more than the third quarter, by our calculation. ASML’s chief executive and finance chief hold a call with investors at 15:00 Central European Time on Wednesday. The next test is the chipmakers’ own spending plans, which will show whether the orders for 2029 and 2030 that customers are talking about turn into firm ones.