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The Macro Notebook
A daily read on economics, equities and geopolitics.
Markets now

Central banks

The last decision of each of the four biggest central banks, what it changed, and what markets price for the next one.

FED

Federal Reserve

Federal funds target range3.75%–4%

The Federal Reserve's decision on its policy rate, with a statement and the chair's press conference; four times a year also new projections.

The last meeting28 October 2026

Federal funds target range, held on 28 October 2026
3.75%–4% vote 10–2; two wanted a rise
US 10-year Treasury yield, 28 October 2026
5.05% +6bp on the day
US 2-year Treasury yield, 28 October 2026
4.67% −3bp on the day

Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4%: two officials wanted a rise, and long yields climbedFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 (Federal Reserve Board)

The next meeting

Markets price hike as the most likely outcome, at 73.2%.

  • Hike73.2%
  • No change26.8%
  • Cut0%

Priced at the 2 Nov close. Source: Central Bank Watch.

Federal Reserve: meeting dates

ECB

European Central Bank

Deposit rate2.50%

The European Central Bank's decision on its interest rates, with a statement and the president's press conference.

The last meeting29 October 2026

ECB deposit rate, 29 October 2026
2.50% unchanged
Lagarde's last day as ECB president
7 Feb 2027 her term ran to October 2027

Lagarde steps down: the ECB president leaves on 7 February 2027 so she can speak freelyMonetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026 (European Central Bank)

The next meeting

Markets price hike as the most likely outcome, at 80.1%.

  • Hike80.1%
  • No change20%
  • Cut0%

Priced at the 2 Nov close. Source: Central Bank Watch.

European Central Bank: meeting dates

BOE

Bank of England

Bank Rate3.75%

The Bank of England's decision on Bank Rate, with the vote of the nine members and, four times a year, the Monetary Policy Report.

The last meetingSeptember 2026

Bank Rate maintained at 3.75%.

Bank Rate, since 18 December 2025
3.75% last rise: to 5.25% on 3 August 2023
UK CPI inflation, September 2026
3.5% from 3.1% in August

Bank Rate maintained at 3.75%: September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes (Bank of England)

The next meeting

Markets price hike as the most likely outcome, at 94.7%.

  • Hike94.7%
  • No change5.3%
  • Cut0%

Priced at the 2 Nov close. Source: Central Bank Watch.

Bank of England interest rate decision: markets put a first rise since 2023 at 95%Bank of England: meeting dates

BOJ

Bank of Japan

Policy rate1.25%

The Bank of Japan's decision on its policy rate after a two-day meeting, with the governor's press conference; four times a year also the Outlook Report.

The last meeting30 October 2026

Bank of Japan policy rate, 30 October 2026
1.25% unchanged; one vote for 1.5%
Bank of Japan ETF sales, a year, book value, from January 2027
¥860bn from ¥330bn

Bank of Japan rate decision: a hold at 1.25%, one vote for 1.5%, and faster ETF salesStatement on Monetary Policy, 30 October 2026 (Bank of Japan)

The next meeting

Markets price hike as the most likely outcome, at 56.6%.

  • Hike56.6%
  • No change43.4%
  • Cut0%

Priced at the 2 Nov close. Source: Central Bank Watch.

Bank of Japan: meeting dates

Other central banks in the calendar

Every central bank date in the calendar

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