BalkansMarket noteWednesday 30 September 2026, 21:45
Vučić gave up Serbia’s presidency, not his power
He resigned to lead his party’s list in the election on 25 October. If it wins, he runs Serbia from the prime minister’s office. The size of the result matters as much as the winner.
By The Notebook Desk
Aleksandar Vučić resigned as Serbia’s president on 27 September to lead his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) into an early parliamentary election on 25 October, the Associated Press reported. His second five-year term would have ended in May 2027, and the constitution does not allow a third. If his list wins, he is its candidate for prime minister.
The move changes his title more than his role. Vučić has been prime minister or president for the past 12 years. The prime minister is formally the more powerful of the two, but even as president Vučić sometimes chaired government sessions and announced the main decisions himself. Observers said as much about the last election. The vote in December 2023 was “dominated by the decisive involvement of the President”, the OSCE’s election office found.
A new office, the same power
Ana Brnabić, a close ally and the outgoing speaker of parliament, is now acting president. Once the new parliament meets, its speaker will appoint the prime minister and call a presidential election. A win on 25 October would give Vučić the government and its formal powers, and his party the first move in the presidential race that follows. He would hold at least as much power as before, and this time the office would match it.
“Given the circumstances, the ruling camp is choosing the electoral sequence it considers least dangerous,” Viktor Stamenković of the Institute for Political Studies in Belgrade told Al Jazeera. With Vučić at the top of the list, the vote becomes a referendum on him, which is the contest the SNS has won for 14 years.
The polls show two different races
| Faktor Plus | +11.5pp |
|---|---|
| NSPM | −2.7pp |
| CRTA | −9.2pp |
Source: Faktor Plus via Blic (16–20 Sep); NSPM (early Sep); CRTA and Democracy Action Lab via N1 (June, decided voters).The Macro Notebook
The pollsters do not agree on who is ahead. Faktor Plus, which polled from 16 to 20 September, put United Serbia, the list led by Vučić, at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1%, Blic reported. Blic said that share would give the SNS list an absolute majority. Even that poll shows the gap closing: the Student List gained 5.6 points on the previous Faktor Plus survey, and United Serbia 1.4.
Other polls put the students ahead. NSPM, a Belgrade political journal, had the Student List at 44.4% and United Serbia at 41.7% in early September, its editor wrote, up from 39.6% and 37.5% in July. He expects a turnout of about 4 million and calls it an election in which “the winner takes all”. A June survey by CRTA, a Belgrade election monitor, and Stanford’s Democracy Action Lab found 44.9% of decided voters for the Student List and 35.7% for the SNS, N1 reported.
Why the margin matters
The protests began after a concrete canopy at the railway station in Novi Sad collapsed in November 2024 and killed 16 people. Students demanded accountability, and their campaign against corruption grew into a movement that now wants to end SNS rule, which began in 2012. At their height in March 2025, more than 100,000 people marched.
So the question on 25 October is not only who wins, but by how much. A clear win would give Vučić a new mandate and a way to say that the streets do not speak for the country. A loss would end 14 years of SNS rule. A narrow win is the most dangerous result. The students would come within reach of power, with a reason to dispute the count, and more protests would be likely. “Even if – and this is a big if – SNS wins another parliamentary majority, it is difficult to envisage a return to a situation in which it can govern normally,” Stamenković said. He also expects election day itself “to be highly contentious”.
The signs point that way. Vučić told state television on 27 September, without evidence, that foreign powers and people inside the country planned unrest on election night. The Bureau for Social Research, an independent group, has filed a complaint that he used his office as president to promote his party, which he denies.
What to watch
The last polls of the campaign, and whether Faktor Plus also shows the gap closing. The turnout on 25 October, and the first results from the electoral commission that night. If the SNS wins, the date the new speaker sets for the presidential vote, and the candidate the party chooses. Serbia’s bid to join the EU has stalled over democratic backsliding and its refusal to join sanctions on Russia. Among SNS voters, 60% favour relations with Russia and 15% want closer ties with the EU, according to the June CRTA survey.
Disclosure
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.