GeopoliticsMarket noteMonday 5 October 2026, 05:58
Brazil election results: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula into a run-off
Official Brazil election results give Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Neither passed 50%, so they meet in a run-off on 25 October.
By The Notebook Desk
Flávio Bolsonaro came first in Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday and will face President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a run-off on 25 October. With 99.99% of polling stations counted, the senator won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to the official Brazil election results from the Superior Electoral Court, the TSE. A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win in the first round, and neither did.
The gap is 2.2m votes: 56,104,500 for Mr Bolsonaro against 53,879,187 for Lula. Mr Bolsonaro is 45, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. It is his first run for the presidency. Lula, 80, was president from 2003 to 2010 and is seeking re-election at the end of his third term, the court noted.
Brazil election results in full
Three other candidates won more than 2% each. Augusto Cury, a writer standing for Avante, took 2.89%. Renan Santos of Missão took 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD 2.18%. Together they won 8.7m votes. The other seven candidates shared less than half a per cent.
Turnout was 78.92%. Of 158.7m registered voters, 125.3m voted and 33.5m stayed away. Another 2.3m voters left their ballot blank (1.84% of votes cast) and 3.7m spoiled it (2.93%). That left 119.3m valid votes, the base for the percentages above.
The arithmetic of the run-off
The run-off is a straight contest between the two leaders, so the 9.3m votes that went to the other 10 candidates are now up for grabs. They are worth far more than the gap between the two.
A simple sum shows the scale. Suppose the same 119.3m valid votes are cast again. The winner then needs about 59.65m. Mr Bolsonaro would need 3.5m more votes than he won on Sunday, or 38% of those that went elsewhere. Lula would need 5.8m, or 62% of them. Turnout and blank votes will change, so this is a guide to the size of the task, not a forecast. It still shows why the endorsements of Mr Cury, Mr Santos and Mr Caiado matter.
The new campaign is short. The second round takes place on 25 October, with polls open from 8:00 to 17:00 Brasília time across the country, according to the court’s election calendar. Any governors’ races that went to a second round are decided on the same day.
What markets will look at
Monday is the first trading day since the vote. Brazil’s currency had already softened in the run-up. The dollar cost 5.11 reais on 21 September and 5.22 on Friday, by the central bank’s PTAX rate, a rise of 2.2% in under two weeks. Even so, the real is stronger than it was at the start of the year: the dollar cost 5.50 reais at the end of 2025.
Interest rates frame the real. Brazil’s central bank has cut its Selic rate five times this year, from 15.00% in January to 13.75%, with the latest cut taking effect on 17 September, its data show. The Fed moved the other way in September, as we reported on 29 September. A smaller gap between Brazilian and US rates makes the real less attractive to investors who borrow in dollars to buy it. Three weeks of campaigning now add political risk to that picture.
What to watch
- The endorsements: whether Mr Cury, Mr Santos and Mr Caiado back either candidate, and whether their voters follow.
- The real and Brazilian bonds: how markets price the first-round result as trading resumes on Monday.
- The campaign: the two candidates’ plans for taxes, spending and the central bank.
- 25 October: the run-off for the presidency, and for any governorships still open.
Disclosure
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.