EquitiesMarket noteThursday 5 November 2026, 00:22 UTC
Why are laptops more expensive? AI data centres get the memory chips first, and US computer prices rose 9.7% in the year to September, a record.
Why are laptops more expensive? Because the memory chips inside them are going to artificial intelligence first. US consumer prices of computers and peripherals rose 9.7% in the year to September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics index shows, the largest 12-month rise in data that go back to 1997. A year earlier the same prices were falling.
The rise came fast. The index rose 5.0% in the first half of the year, then climbed 8.9% between June and September alone. Apple, which changed the prices of its Macs and iPads at the end of June and of its iPhones in September, told investors on Monday that what it sees in memory pricing “right now is unprecedented”, according to the call transcript.
For a quarter of a century, the computer price index fell almost without a break. It dropped by more than 20% a year in the five years to 2003, and by 3% to 9% a year from 2012 to 2020, as each new machine did more for the same money. The statisticians count that extra power as a lower price.
The one exception before this year was 2021, when a chip shortage during the pandemic pushed the index up 8.5% in the year to September. That rise faded within a year. This one is larger, and the industry expects it to last.
| 2016 | −7.6% |
|---|---|
| 2017 | −3.6% |
| 2018 | −2.6% |
| 2019 | −3.3% |
| 2020 | −5.7% |
| 2021 | +8.5% |
| 2022 | −3.6% |
| 2023 | −5.2% |
| 2024 | −4.7% |
| 2025 | −0.7% |
| 2026 | +9.7% |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for computers, peripherals and smart home assistants (CUUR0000SEEE01, not seasonally adjusted), via FRED; our calculation.The Macro Notebook
The cause sits upstream. Data centres for AI need huge amounts of memory, both the working memory known as DRAM and the NAND chips used for storage, and the three big makers, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, cannot build new factories fast enough.
Prices of the chips themselves have jumped. In February, TrendForce, a market research firm in Taipei, expected contract prices for ordinary DRAM to rise 90% to 95% in the first quarter alone, and PC memory by more than 100%, both records. The rises have slowed since, but not stopped: for the fourth quarter it expects DRAM contract prices to rise another 10% to 15%, and NAND 15% to 20%.
The money shows up in South Korea, home to Samsung and SK Hynix. Korean chip exports rose 259% on a year to $56.4bn in October, almost half of all the country’s exports, trade ministry figures reported by Korea JoongAng Daily show.
The large buyers have locked in their supply. Samsung said in July that once its talks finish, long-term contracts would cover 60% to 70% of its planned memory output, signed with large data-centre customers for an initial five years and renewed each year, The Investor reported.
Those contracts limit what the chipmakers can charge the buyers that hold them. So the price rises fall on everyone else. TrendForce said in July that it expected the main source of increases to shift to customers without long-term deals. In September it added that makers of cheaper goods, such as televisions, set-top boxes and wearables, have less room to absorb the higher prices.
Even Samsung’s own gadgets feel it. Its phone and network business made an operating loss of 0.6tn won in the third quarter, and Samsung said its earnings fell on a year “due to cost pressures”, while its memory business set new records.
Makers are using up stock bought at older prices. For the last three months of the year, smartphone brands are “largely relying on existing inventories”, TrendForce says, and PC makers are drawing on the stock they built in the first half. Some are cutting what they put in the box: brands are reducing the storage in mainstream models to hold down costs.
That stock is running out. Apple said this week that it expects a smaller benefit from memory bought at older prices as the months go by, and its chief executive, John Ternus, said: “Looking beyond the December quarter, we see the pricing for memory purchases continuing to increase.”
The chipmakers expect no quick relief. Micron, the only large US maker, expects supply and demand to be “much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026”, it said in September, as we reported at the time.
US consumer prices for October come out on 10 November, and will show whether computer prices kept rising into the holiday season. Nvidia, whose AI processors use large amounts of memory, reports on 17 November, and Dell, one of the largest PC makers, on 24 November. Micron’s next results, expected on 16 December, will show what memory prices did in the autumn.
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
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