Inflation

The Albanian lek is so strong that no floating currency has gained more since 2019. Tourism leads; import prices did not fall, but the state's debt ratio did.

The US PPI rose 1.3% in September, the biggest monthly rise since March 2022, as energy jumped 10.8%. Core producer prices rose 0.7%, and Fed hike odds rose.

US CPI for September is out today. Here is what a hot, in-line or soft report would mean for the odds of a Fed rate rise in October or December, and for yields.

The IMF's October World Economic Outlook sees global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. AI investment offsets the energy shock, but inflation is rising.

Tariffs and inflation: NY Fed economists find tariffs added 2.9 points to US goods inflation at the peak. Without them, goods prices would have fallen slightly.

The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% and moved to calibrated tightening, its first rise since February 2023, as it sees inflation near 6% this winter.

Most economists expect Wednesday's RBI policy decision to lift the repo rate to 5.50%. Inflation hit 4.82% in August, and the RBI sees it peaking near 6%.

Energy prices were 18.8% higher than a year ago in September, and inflation reached its highest since 2023. Core inflation rose only to 2.5%, and markets see little chance of an ECB rise this month.

Core PCE prices rose 0.2% in August, less than forecast, and revisions lowered the path. Futures now give an October increase about a 35% chance, down from 71% on Monday.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 54bp in a month. The market price of inflation moved 1bp.