GeopoliticsMarket noteTuesday 20 October 2026, 09:55
China's trade surplus reached $938bn by September, on course for a record. Chips and computers made two-fifths of export growth; the EU now tops the US.
China’s trade surplus reached $938.1bn in the first nine months of 2026, its customs administration reported, 7.2% more than in the same months of last year. Exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier, to $447.2bn. The surplus for the month alone was $133.5bn.
That puts China on course to beat last year’s record. In 2025 it sold the world $1.19tn more than it bought, customs figures show. To pass that, China needs $251bn in the last three months of the year. It made $314bn in the same quarter of 2025, and $134bn in September alone.
The surprise is that it grows at all. China’s imports rose faster than its exports this year: 27.5% against 21.3%, in dollars. On their own, faster imports would shrink the surplus. It grew because exports start from a much larger base. Exports added $591bn over the nine months; imports added $528bn, against last year’s figures.
Much of the growth came from one corner of the economy. China’s exports of integrated circuits were worth $301.6bn in the nine months, the customs table of major goods shows, more than double the $144.9bn of a year earlier. Computers and their parts rose 54.6%, to $231.6bn. Together the two added $238.5bn, about two-fifths of all the growth in China’s exports.
The chip figures say as much about prices as about trade. China shipped only 3.8% more integrated circuits by number than a year ago, but earned 108.1% more for them. The value per chip roughly doubled. That fits the shortage of memory chips that AI data centres have caused. As we reported on 8 October, Samsung’s quarterly profit rose almost ninefold on the same shortage.
Chips may also explain part of the rise in imports. China’s imports from South Korea rose 75.4% this year, and from Taiwan 27.8%: both are big chipmakers. Of the partners in the customs table, these are the two with which China runs its largest deficits.
| Hong Kong | +310.8bn |
|---|---|
| European Union | +277.3bn |
| ASEAN | +261.2bn |
| United States | +233.8bn |
| India | +105.9bn |
| Africa | +93.8bn |
| United Kingdom | +58.8bn |
| Russia | −18.2bn |
| Japan | −23.6bn |
| Australia | −69.4bn |
| South Korea | −86.9bn |
| Taiwan | −131.4bn |
| All partners | +938.1bn |
Source: General Administration of Customs of China, preliminary release, 15 October 2026. Exports minus imports, in US dollars. ASEAN: ten South-East Asian countries.The Macro Notebook
China’s surplus with the European Union, $277.3bn, is now larger than its surplus with the United States, $233.8bn. China’s exports to the EU rose 16.4% in the nine months, and its imports from the EU just 5.5%, the customs figures by country show.
The EU’s own figures tell the same story in euros. Its goods deficit with China was €371.6bn in 2025, Eurostat’s trade data show: about €1bn a day. In the first eight months of 2026 it reached €277.9bn, up from €242.2bn a year earlier. EU imports from China rose 9.0%, while its exports to China fell 1.5%, to €129.1bn.
The two sets of figures differ because each side counts trade its own way. China values its exports as they leave, and the EU values its imports as they arrive, with shipping included. Both point the same way.
Brussels is starting to act. China agreed this month to cap its exports of hybrid cars to the EU at 350,000 a year, as we reported on 13 October, less than half of this year’s level. On Friday, EU leaders went further. They asked the European Commission “to urgently enhance the EU toolbox with new instruments” to deal with global trade imbalances, their conclusions say. The text does not name China, or say what such a tool would do.
The surplus also shapes China’s own economy. Its growth this year rests on exports while investment at home shrinks, as we reported on Monday. A larger surplus makes that model work for now. It also makes it easier for trading partners to justify limits.
Customs should publish the October trade figures in mid-November. Two things matter. The first is chips: if memory prices cool, China’s export growth loses its fastest engine. The second is Europe: the Commission now has to turn the leaders’ request into a proposal, and EU imports from China are still rising while its exports fall.
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
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