Trade and tariffs

October 2026

1. Mon 1907:18Geopolitics
   China GDP growth: 4.5% in the third quarter, carried by exports as investment falls 7.2%

   China GDP growth picked up to 4.5% in the third quarter. Exports rose 16.4% this year, but investment fell 7.2% and retail sales grew just 1.1%.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
2. Tue 1306:15Geopolitics
   EU-China hybrid deal: imports capped at 350,000 a year, less than half this year's

   China will hold hybrid car exports to the EU to 350,000 a year from December, against about 800,000 this year. The EU's deficit with China was €372bn in 2025.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
3. Fri 900:45Geopolitics
   WTO trade forecast: AI is holding up world trade, and that is the risk

   The WTO doubled its 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9%, and AI goods drove almost half the growth. The productivity gains are hard to see. The borrowing is not.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
4. Thu 823:15Geopolitics
   Tariffs and inflation: goods prices would have fallen without them

   Tariffs and inflation: NY Fed economists find tariffs added 2.9 points to US goods inflation at the peak. Without them, goods prices would have fallen slightly.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
5. Thu 808:22Equities
   Levi Strauss earnings: tariff refunds lifted profit, but US sales fell

   Levi Strauss earnings rose on $79m of tariff refunds after the Supreme Court ruling. Without them, operating profit was flat on the year and US sales fell 1%.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk4 min
6. Wed 707:08Geopolitics
   US trade deficit widens to $105.6bn, the largest since March 2025

   The US trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August, the widest since March 2025, as imports of crude oil, gold and chips rose much faster than exports.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min