CommoditiesMarket noteTuesday 27 October 2026, 08:21
Gas prices under Trump vs Biden: the second-term average, $3.446 a gallon, is a cent below Biden's $3.457. At $4.28, it passes his by the midterms.
Gas prices under Trump and Biden are now all but level. Across the 92 weeks of Donald Trump’s second term to 19 October 2026, a gallon of regular gasoline has cost $3.446 on average, weekly Energy Information Administration data show. Across Joe Biden’s four years it cost $3.457: a gap of about one cent. With the pump price at $4.28 and the midterm elections on 3 November, the comparison has become a campaign line.
Our calculation from the same data shows how fast the gap is closing. If prices stay near $4.28, Mr Trump’s average passes Mr Biden’s with the EIA’s survey for the week of 2 November, the day before the vote. To stop it, the price would have to average less than about $3.98 over those two weeks.
The comparison depends on which Trump term is meant, and on whether prices are adjusted for inflation.
In Mr Trump’s first term, gasoline averaged $2.48 a gallon, a dollar less than under Mr Biden. Prices fell as low as $1.77 in April 2020, when the pandemic emptied the roads. Under Mr Biden they peaked at $5.01 in June 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and he left office with them at $3.04.
Adjusted for inflation with the consumer price index, the picture changes. In September 2026 dollars, Mr Biden’s term still averages $3.93, against $3.53 for Mr Trump’s second term so far. Prices in general rose by about a fifth during the Biden years, so a dollar at the pump then was worth more than a dollar now.
The second term began cheaply. In its first week, in January 2025, a gallon cost $3.11, and it fell to $2.78 in January 2026, the lowest of the term.
Then oil jumped. Brent crude rose from $61.98 a barrel on 2 January 2026 to $138.21 on 7 April, EIA figures show, as war in the Gulf cut supply. It was $115.22 on 20 October. Crude made up 52% of the pump price in May 2026, the EIA estimates, and gasoline followed it to a peak of $4.50 in the week of 11 May.
The price has eased in October, from $4.35 on 5 October to $4.28 on 19 October. It is still $1.27 a gallon higher than a year earlier, the EIA’s weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update shows. The West Coast pays most, at $5.56 a gallon, and California $6.03; the Gulf Coast pays least, at $3.78.
Higher than almost all of it. Of Mr Biden’s 208 full weeks in office, only 13 had a higher price than the latest week’s $4.28, all in the spring and summer of 2022. The first was the week of 14 March 2022, at $4.32, and the last the week of 25 July, at $4.33.
Presidents have little direct control over the price of gasoline, which is set by world crude markets, refinery margins and taxes. Voters still judge them by it. We wrote on 9 October that the White House had ruled out a new strike on Iran before the midterms, and oil rose 4% in a day. Diesel has risen even more than petrol, as we explained last week.
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
ContactWrite to the Notebook
Spotted an error, or a source this piece should cite? Want your own research linked or featured? Tell us. We read every message.
Our research · 52 min read
The lek has not bought so many euros since at least 1995, when Eurostat's records begin. In September 2026 a euro cost 91.85 lek on average, the lowest monthly figure in those records. In 2019 it cost 123.01. Put the other way round, the lek now buys 33.9% more euros than it did in 2019, and 37.7% more dollars.
Continue reading the story