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Oil prices
Brent and WTI, OPEC+ and the IEA, and the supply the war has taken off the market. 10 items, newest first.
October 2026
- CommoditiesIEA Oil Market Report: oil demand to fall 2.6m barrels a day
The IEA's October Oil Market Report sees oil demand falling 2.6m barrels a day in 2026. Gulf supply is back, but stocks are 509m barrels below pre-war levels.
- CommoditiesDiesel prices: the IEA wants faster stock releases as the Russian deal falls short
US diesel costs $6.20 a gallon, 67% more than a year ago. The IEA wants stocks released faster, and experts say Trump's Russian deal will barely move prices.
- CommoditiesOil prices rose 4% after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the midterms
Brent closed up 4% at $104.28 after Trump pledged no attack on Iran before 3 November. As long as oil is above $70, we read such pledges as talk.
- CommoditiesHeating oil prices are up 34%, and oil-heated homes face 21% higher bills
Heating oil prices will average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34%, the EIA says. Oil-heated homes face a 21% higher bill; gas and propane users pay less.
- CommoditiesG7 oil stock release puts diesel first, but much of it was promised in March
G7 leaders agreed to release 100m barrels of oil and diesel over four months. About 75m was still owed from March. Then Trump ruled out a diesel export ban.
- CommoditiesOPEC+ keeps November oil output targets steady, but the war still sets supply
Seven OPEC+ countries held their combined November target at 31m barrels a day. OPEC's own data show its members pumped 28% less in the spring than in 2025.
September 2026
- CommoditiesGulf crude exports are near 80% of pre-war levels, but oil is still priced for war
Kpler put Middle East crude exports at 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the most since February. Brent fell 2.6% on the news, yet it stays far above its pre-war level.
- CommoditiesSpot Brent rose 48% in three weeks, and it was not the year’s high
Physical crude went from $88 to $131 a barrel between 25 August and 15 September.
- GeopoliticsOil rose again after Iran’s Hormuz offer was turned down
Brent futures rose more than 3% on 28 September, to about $107, after the US president rejected a proposal to reopen the strait within a week.
- EquitiesThe S&P 500 has barely noticed the oil shock
The index closed 1.5% below its August high on 28 September, and the VIX stayed below 18 through 22 September.
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