Ras Tanura attack: the Houthis claim a hit on Saudi Arabia's biggest refinery

The Ras Tanura attack is, so far, a claim. Yemen’s Houthis said on Tuesday, 27 October, that a ballistic missile had hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels a day, and that it set the complex on fire, Reuters reported. Saudi authorities have not confirmed that the refinery was hit.

What is confirmed is smaller. A fire broke out near the Ras Tanura export terminal, next to the refinery, and Saudi Arabia contained it, Bloomberg reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. Saudi air defences were busy that day and the next. The oil market moved, but not the way a hit on the kingdom’s main refinery would suggest.

What the Houthis claim

The claim came from the Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Saree. He said the strike caused a fire at the complex, which includes the refinery and one of Saudi Arabia’s two main export ports, on the Gulf west of the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly all Saudi oil exports flow through Ras Tanura and Yanbu, on the Red Sea, and the Houthis have attacked both before, Reuters notes.

The Houthis also said they had attacked two military transport jets at Najran airport and an airbase at Khamis Mushait. They said, too, that they had repelled an advance by Saudi-backed forces near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gate of the Red Sea shipping route. There was no Saudi confirmation of those claims either.

What Saudi Arabia and the coalition say

• No word on the refinery. “Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the strike,” Reuters reported on Tuesday evening.
• Missiles intercepted. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said on Tuesday that it had destroyed two ballistic missiles fired towards Riyadh, after a brief air raid alert in the capital.
• Another on Wednesday. “Air defenses intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia toward the eastern region,” the coalition’s spokesman, Colonel Turki Al-Malki, said on X on Wednesday, Fox News reported. The Eastern Province is where Ras Tanura is.

So the official record confirms attacks on Saudi Arabia and a fire near the terminal, but not damage to the refinery. Ras Tanura was shut for a period early in the Iran war as a precaution, Reuters notes, so the plant has been offline before without a hit.

What the Ras Tanura attack did to oil prices

Not much, at first. Brent spot fell 3.9% on Tuesday, to $123.10 a barrel, EIA prices show, from $128.12 on Monday. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.8% to $103.37. On Monday, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan had met Iranian officials in Tehran to try to reduce regional tensions, Reuters noted.

The rebound came on Wednesday. US crude rose about 3%, and gave back about $1 early on Thursday in Asia, to $101.86, Fox News reported, citing Reuters.

For scale, Brent spot was $71.32 on 27 February, before the war began; it is now 73% higher. The war, not one strike, sets the price: the Gulf’s export routes, the blockade of Iranian ports and, now, Saudi Arabia’s own facilities.

What to watch

Three things would show whether the refinery was damaged:

• A statement from Aramco or the Saudi energy ministry. We found no statement from either on the refinery by Thursday morning.
• Saudi product exports. A 550,000-barrel refinery makes diesel and petrol for export as well as for the kingdom; a long outage would tighten fuel markets that are already short.
• Shipping at the terminal. Loadings at Ras Tanura are the first sign of trouble for crude exports.

Fuel markets are already strained by the war, as we explained in why diesel costs more than petrol.