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Iran and the Gulf
The war, the Strait of Hormuz and what they do to oil, shipping and prices. 7 items, newest first.
October 2026
- CommoditiesIEA Oil Market Report: oil demand to fall 2.6m barrels a day
The IEA's October Oil Market Report sees oil demand falling 2.6m barrels a day in 2026. Gulf supply is back, but stocks are 509m barrels below pre-war levels.
- CommoditiesOil prices rose 4% after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the midterms
Brent closed up 4% at $104.28 after Trump pledged no attack on Iran before 3 November. As long as oil is above $70, we read such pledges as talk.
- CommoditiesOPEC+ keeps November oil output targets steady, but the war still sets supply
Seven OPEC+ countries held their combined November target at 31m barrels a day. OPEC's own data show its members pumped 28% less in the spring than in 2025.
September 2026
- CommoditiesGulf crude exports are near 80% of pre-war levels, but oil is still priced for war
Kpler put Middle East crude exports at 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the most since February. Brent fell 2.6% on the news, yet it stays far above its pre-war level.
- CommoditiesWhat the Gulf cannot sell, refiners in Africa and Asia now make
Diesel’s premium over crude reached a monthly record in September. BloombergNEF expects Africa and Asia to account for 95% of new refining capacity to 2030, led by Nigeria’s Dangote.
- CommoditiesSpot Brent rose 48% in three weeks, and it was not the year’s high
Physical crude went from $88 to $131 a barrel between 25 August and 15 September.
- GeopoliticsOil rose again after Iran’s Hormuz offer was turned down
Brent futures rose more than 3% on 28 September, to about $107, after the US president rejected a proposal to reopen the strait within a week.
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