Bond yields

US net interest on the national debt hit $1,051.8bn in fiscal 2026, up 8.4%, Treasury figures show. It now costs more than defence and a fifth of revenue.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.19%, up 44bp since August. In the year to July, private foreign investors bought $392.3bn of US corporate bonds and $263.4bn of Treasuries.

Mortgage rates rose for a seventh week: the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, the highest since November 2023, as Treasury yields climbed. Here is what it costs.

The Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate rise by the end of 2026. Since then, inflation and hiring came in softer, but long yields kept rising.

Paramount closed its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover and is now Skydance. It paid about $78bn in cash, funded by $47bn of equity and $41.4bn of secured bonds.

UK mortgage rates are at three-year highs: the average five-year fix is 6.00% and sub-5% fixed deals have almost gone, as gilt yields and BoE rate bets climb.

A chart pairing 1987 with 2026 says rising yields end in a crash. Since 1962 the 10-year has jumped 100bp by October in nine years, and only 1987 crashed. The real risk is real yields.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11bp in the week, to its highest Friday close since 2002, even as weak jobs data cut the odds of a Fed rise. Real yields did it.

Short yields moved first as the Fed turned to rate increases. The gap between 10-year and 2-year yields fell to 20bp, the smallest since March 2025.

The extra yield on US high-yield bonds over Treasuries rose from 2.66 to 2.93 percentage points in four trading days.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 54bp in a month. The market price of inflation moved 1bp.