RatesMarket noteThursday 5 November 2026, 09:13 UTC
The October jobs report is due on Friday. Economists expect 65,000 jobs and 4.2% unemployment; markets put a December Fed rate rise at 79%. What to watch.
The October jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is due on Friday 6 November. Economists expect payrolls to have risen by 65,000 and the unemployment rate to have held at 4.2%, a Reuters survey shows. The number matters more than usual: markets put the chance of a Federal Reserve rate rise on 9 December at 79.3%, and a strong report would all but settle it.
The forecast of 65,000 jobs would be more than twice September’s 29,000, but still a slow month by the standards of recent years. Economists polled by Reuters expect private employers to have added 64,000 of them, after 46,000 in September, the same report says.
The first hint came on Wednesday. Private payrolls rose by 86,000 in October in the ADP National Employment Report, more than the 69,000 economists had forecast, Reuters reported. ADP’s figure comes from payroll data, not the government’s surveys, and it has been a poor guide to the official count.
Hiring has been slow and uneven all year. Payrolls rose by 612,000 from December 2025 to September 2026, an average of 68,000 a month, BLS data show. Two of those nine months were losses: February, by 156,000, and July, by 10,000. In the year to September, payrolls rose by 496,000, or about 41,000 a month.
| Jan | +160k |
|---|---|
| Feb | −156k |
| Mar | +214k |
| Apr | +148k |
| May | +63k |
| Jun | +31k |
| Jul | −10k |
| Aug | +133k |
| Sep | +29k |
| Average | +68k |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (PAYEMS), seasonally adjusted, as of 5 November 2026.The Macro Notebook
Yet unemployment has fallen. The rate was 4.5% in November 2025 and 4.2% in September 2026, BLS figures show, after a low of 4.1% in July and August. Slow hiring and low unemployment fit together when fewer people join the labour force. The broader U-6 rate, which adds people working part time who want more hours and those who have stopped looking, fell to 7.6% in September from 7.9% in July, by the BLS measure.
Layoffs stay rare, as we noted when claims ran under 200,000 for four weeks. Initial claims for jobless benefits were 194,000 in the week to 24 October, Labor Department data show. The figure for the week to 31 October comes out on 5 November.
Not this year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector workers were $37.81 in September 2026, up 3.0% from a year earlier, by the BLS series. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same twelve months, by the consumer price index. So the average hourly wage bought less in September than a year before.
That gap is the other number to watch on Friday. Wage growth faster than prices would help households; wage growth that also speeds up would worry the Fed, as it points to more inflation ahead.
The Fed raised its target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, its statement shows. Futures now give a 79.3% chance of another quarter-point rise at the 9 December meeting, and 20.7% of no change, Central Bank Watch calculates from prices at the 4 November close. A day earlier the chance was 71.3%.
The Fed will see the October jobs report and the October inflation figures before it meets. A jobs number well above 65,000, with faster wage growth, would make a December rise close to certain. A weak number, or a rise in unemployment, would bring the case for holding back into play. As we reported on 2 October, September’s weak report cut the chance of a rise in October to one in five.
The jobs report comes out at 8:30am in Washington, 13:30 UTC.
This is analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
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