The US economy

October 2026

1. Sun 1100:30Credit
   Data centre building is up 73% in a year. The rest of US construction is shrinking

   Spending on US data centre construction reached an $85.0bn annual rate in August. Private building outside data centres fell 5.3%, and AI deals made up more than half of net bond supply.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
2. Fri 900:50Rates
   Jobless claims: four weeks under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969

   Weekly jobless claims fell to 197,000, the fourth week in a row under 200,000, a run last seen in 1969. American employers are not firing, but they are not hiring much either.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
3. Wed 707:08Geopolitics
   US trade deficit widens to $105.6bn, the largest since March 2025

   The US trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August, the widest since March 2025, as imports of crude oil, gold and chips rose much faster than exports.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min
4. Fri 214:50Rates
   US payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, and an October Fed rise is fading

   Hiring fell short of forecasts and the two months before were revised down by 60,000. Futures now give a Fed increase on 28 October about a one-in-five chance. Two-year yields fell 7bp.

   Market noteThe Notebook Desk3 min