Why are gas prices going down? A gallon falls to $4.15, the lowest since August

Gas prices are going down. A gallon of regular gasoline cost $4.153 on average in the week to 2 November, down from $4.478 on 21 September, weekly Energy Information Administration figures show. That is a fall of 7.3%, or about 32 cents, and the lowest price since the last week of August.

Why are gas prices going down? Mostly because crude oil is. Brent, the international benchmark, fell from $128.30 a barrel on 23 October to $107.03 on 3 November, a drop of 16.6% in eight trading days. Drivers have felt only part of it so far.

Why gas prices are going down

Crude is the biggest single cost in a gallon of gasoline. Over 2016 to 2025 it made up about half of the pump price, on average, with refining, distribution and taxes making up the rest, the EIA’s breakdown shows. When crude moves, the pump follows, a few weeks behind.

Oil has had a wild autumn. The war in the Middle East pushed Brent above $100 again in September, and its average for October, $123.93, was the highest of any month this year, daily EIA prices show. Then it turned. On 2 November alone Brent fell 10.6%, from $120.15 to $107.39. The US benchmark, WTI, ended 3 November at $99.64, below $100 for the first time since 14 October.

Politics has moved oil all autumn: as we wrote on 9 October, oil rose 4% in a day when the president ruled out a strike on Iran before the midterms. The daily EIA series we use ends on 3 November, so it does not yet show how oil traded after Tuesday’s election.

US regular gasoline, first week of each month, $ a gallon. Source: US Energy Information Administration via FRED (GASREGW), weekly average of all formulations, first reading of each month in 2026.

Jan	2.80
Feb	2.87
Mar	3.02
Apr	4.12
May	4.45
Jun	4.30
Jul	3.78
Aug	4.08
Sep	4.16
Oct	4.35
Nov	4.15 (week of 2 Nov)

Source: US Energy Information Administration via FRED (GASREGW), weekly average of all formulations, first reading of each month in 2026.The Macro Notebook

Still far above last year

The fall needs context. Gasoline is still 37.6% dearer than a year ago, when a gallon cost $3.019 in the first week of November 2025. It was $2.796 in the first week of January, before the war sent it above $4 in April and to this year’s high of $4.500 in May.

The pump also falls more slowly than crude. From its September peak to 2 November, the average gallon lost 7.3%. Brent’s monthly average over the same stretch fell from $114.16 in September to $107.21 in the first days of November, and much of its fall came only in the last ten days, so most of it has not reached forecourts yet. If crude holds near today’s level, pump prices have further to fall.

As we showed on 27 October, the average under Donald Trump’s second term had just drawn level with Joe Biden’s, at about $3.45 a gallon, with the pump price then at $4.28. At $4.15 each new week still lifts that average, only more slowly.

Diesel is not following

Diesel tells a different story. The average gallon of diesel cost $6.292 on 2 November, down only 6 cents, or 0.9%, in a week and 24 cents below its record of $6.529 on 21 September, EIA data show. Diesel moves trucks, trains and farm machines, so its price feeds into the cost of almost everything that is shipped. As we explained on 23 October, the gap between diesel and gasoline is close to a record $2 a gallon. With gasoline falling faster, it has widened to $2.14.

What to watch

The EIA publishes its next weekly prices on Monday, 9 November, the first full week after the election. To be the cheapest gasoline since March, the average would have to fall below $3.990, its level at the end of that month. That needs crude to stay where it is, and the Middle East to stay quiet. The war has shown this year how fast that can change.