Stock markets

Indonesia stocks fell 11.5%, their worst day since 1998, after MSCI proposed moving Indonesia from emerging to standalone status. It will decide by June 2027.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.3% on Wednesday after a hot inflation report. Chipmakers are expected to provide much of the S&P 500's third-quarter profit growth.

In the flight to quality, quality stocks beat momentum by the widest margin since 2023. The money went into tech: McDonald's and Home Depot are down this year.

OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was about $50bn at the end of September, well short of the $68bn widely reported. CoreWeave fell nearly 8% and Oracle almost 6%.

A chart pairing 1987 with 2026 says rising yields end in a crash. Since 1962 the 10-year has jumped 100bp by October in nine years, and only 1987 crashed. The real risk is real yields.

Since 1946, more S&P 500 bear markets have ended in October than in any other month. Today the index is 1% from a record, yet 182 of its stocks are in a bear market of their own. PepsiCo is one.

Sales fell 4% and Nike expects them to fall by a high single digit for the year. The shares dropped 8% after hours. At the guided profit, the dividend costs more than Nike earns.

The shares are down more than 40% this year and Nike has left the S&P 100. Analysts expect sales to fall again. Small investors are more patient than Wall Street.

The index closed 1.5% below its August high on 28 September, and the VIX stayed below 18 through 22 September.